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  • The effects of overconfidence have substantial and far-reaching economic as well as social implications. A large body of literature has confirmed that overestimating one's own abilities hinders accurate decision-making and considerably influences the quality of decisions, thus leading to substantial negative consequences. In our study, we explore how gender, age, and prior experience affect the occurrence of overconfidence. We investigate these factors within the context of marathon races by analyzing the slowdown of runners, which is seen as a direct and inevitable reaction to the overestimation of one’s initial race pace. We confirm the large body of previous studies by revealing a clear gender gap: men have a stronger tendency toward overconfidence. Furthermore, we show that age correlates with overconfidence, with particularly young and old individuals overestimating their potential performance. Moreover, the present study illustrates that the tendency for overconfident behavior increases with experience.
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